The Zangezur Corridor: Why Armenia and Azerbaijan Are Closer to Conflict Than Peace

The Zangezur Corridor: Geopolitics, Ceasefire Violations, and the Rising Risk of War in the South Caucasus

As of April 2025, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are escalating at a pace that has alarmed international observers, political analysts, and civilians living near the border. What began as cautious optimism earlier this year over a potential peace treaty has now given way to fears of renewed military conflict. The heart of the tension lies in the highly strategic Zangezur Corridor—a narrow strip of land in southern Armenia that has become a geopolitical flashpoint.

This article presents a clear, factual look at the recent developments in the region, explains the strategic importance of the corridor, and outlines the current security risks without partisan bias.

A Brief Background: Nagorno-Karabakh and the Roots of Conflict

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict dates back decades, with the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region at its center. While the area was internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, it has long been populated by ethnic Armenians and functioned under a de facto Armenian-backed administration since the early 1990s.

In 2020, a six-week war broke out, leading to significant territorial losses for Armenia and a Russian-brokered ceasefire. Azerbaijan regained control over large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts, dramatically shifting the balance of power.

Although the war ended in November 2020, the ceasefire did not address the underlying tensions—particularly disputes over border demarcations and infrastructure corridors such as Zangezur.

March 2025: Peace Treaty Draft Finalized

In a move that initially gave hope to the region, Armenia and Azerbaijan finalized the draft of a peace treaty in mid-March 2025. The agreement aimed to normalize diplomatic relations, formally recognize international borders, and open transportation routes between the two countries.

The treaty was cautiously welcomed by international actors including the United States, the European Union, and Russia, all of whom have interests in maintaining stability in the South Caucasus. However, key disagreements—especially over the Zangezur Corridor—remained unresolved.

April 2025: Ceasefire Violations and Rising Tensions

In the weeks following the announcement of the peace treaty draft, the situation on the ground began to unravel. Armenian border villages such as Kut and Movses reported gunfire from Azerbaijani positions. Though the Armenian Ministry of Defense denied initiating any attacks, Azerbaijan accused Armenian forces of ceasefire violations almost daily.

According to Armenian officials, these accusations were unfounded and part of a broader strategy by Azerbaijan to apply pressure during peace negotiations. The Armenian government even proposed a joint investigative mechanism to verify ceasefire incidents—an offer Azerbaijan has yet to formally address.

Meanwhile, the European Union Monitoring Mission reported that it had not observed any hostile actions by Armenian forces that would validate Azerbaijan’s claims.

Aliyev’s Demands and Constitutional Pressure

Complicating the situation further, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev issued a public demand in early April that Armenia must amend its constitution to remove language suggesting territorial claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev described the constitutional change as a non-negotiable prerequisite to signing the peace treaty.

This demand has caused uproar in Armenia. Critics argue that constitutional amendments tied to territorial sovereignty would violate Armenia’s internal political process and threaten national dignity. Political leaders and opposition groups have condemned the move, framing it as an attempt to force unilateral concessions under the guise of diplomacy.

Aliyev’s demand has also led some analysts to question Azerbaijan’s long-term intentions. Rather than viewing the treaty as a path to normalization, many fear it is being used as a political weapon to coerce Armenia into geopolitical subservience.

The Strategic Importance of the Zangezur Corridor

The Zangezur Corridor runs through Armenia’s southern Syunik province and, if opened under Azerbaijani terms, would create a direct land connection between mainland Azerbaijan and its western exclave, Nakhichevan. More significantly, it would also link Azerbaijan directly to Turkey.

This corridor is not simply about transportation—it is symbolic and strategic. For Azerbaijan, it represents connectivity and economic leverage. For Turkey, it represents an opportunity to deepen its influence in the region and pursue a vision of pan-Turkic unity, sometimes referred to in academic circles as neo-Ottomanism.

For Armenia, however, the corridor represents a potential loss of sovereignty. While Yerevan has expressed openness to regional transportation links, it insists they must remain under Armenian jurisdiction and be governed by international agreements, not dictated by external powers.

Part 2: International Stakes and the Road Ahead

Turkey’s Role and Regional Ambitions

Turkey has been a vocal supporter of Azerbaijan throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and beyond. Ankara provided military assistance during the 2020 war and has since deepened its political and military alliance with Baku. The Zangezur Corridor, if secured, would offer Turkey an uninterrupted land route to Central Asia via Azerbaijan, Nakhichevan, and Armenia’s Syunik province.

This alignment strengthens Turkey’s pan-Turkic aspirations, enhancing trade and strategic depth across the Turkic-speaking world. It also diminishes Armenia’s geopolitical leverage while isolating Iran, which shares a short border with Armenia and views the corridor project with suspicion.

International Reactions and Diplomatic Pressure

The United States and the European Union have both expressed cautious optimism about the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process but remain concerned over recent developments. The U.S. Department of State praised the peace treaty draft but urged both sides to de-escalate military tensions and avoid unilateral demands that could derail negotiations.

Russia, historically Armenia’s security guarantor, has adopted a more neutral stance since the 2020 war. Its influence in the region has weakened due to its commitments in Ukraine, leaving a power vacuum that Turkey and Azerbaijan appear increasingly willing to fill.

Meanwhile, the EU’s monitoring mission remains active on the Armenian side of the border, though its ability to enforce peace or deter aggression is limited.

Risk Assessment: Are Armenia and Azerbaijan Headed Toward War?

Despite the peace treaty draft, the situation on the ground remains volatile. Near-daily reports of gunfire, aggressive rhetoric from Azerbaijani leadership, and increasing military activity have many analysts warning of a potential escalation. Armenia’s restraint, likely influenced by international pressure, may not hold indefinitely if provocations continue.

The core issue remains trust—or lack thereof. Azerbaijan seeks legal and territorial guarantees, while Armenia demands respect for its sovereignty and safety. Until both sides can agree on mechanisms to ensure mutual security, the region will remain on the brink.

What Happens Next?

The coming weeks are critical. Armenia’s domestic political climate is tense, with some factions opposing constitutional amendments or any corridor plan that appears to compromise sovereignty. Azerbaijan, emboldened by military and economic support from Turkey, continues to increase its leverage through both diplomacy and pressure.

Whether the peace deal moves forward—or falls apart—depends on several factors:

- Resolution of border incidents and verification mechanisms

- Willingness to compromise on corridor governance

- External mediation from the EU, U.S., and possibly Russia

- Internal political stability within Armenia and Azerbaijan

What is clear is that the Zangezur Corridor has become more than just a regional issue—it is now a litmus test for diplomacy, sovereignty, and peace in the South Caucasus.

This article is based on recent developments and verified reporting as of April 10, 2025. All content is original and independently written for informational purposes.